Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A7 0xa7fc…7c00 politics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$110 (-9%) realized −$105 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$112
14 days+$151
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$206
world 37% +$121
other 7% −$27
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +43.4% +29.7% 100% 100% +57.1%
≤30d 4 +49.4% +35.2% 100% 100% +45.6%
≤90d 6 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 83% +34.4%
all 29 -7.8% -16.6% 48% 41% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 41% -19.1%
10% -24.6% 34% -26.8%
15% -31.9% 24% -33.9%
20% -38.6% 17% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$25 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage573d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? No 75¢ 74¢ $260 $255 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 26 $147 +$111 +76%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $111 +$39 +36%
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives May 31 $62 +$47 +75%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 04 $63 +$4 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $51 +$12 +23%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Sep 16 $5 −$3 -69%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Sep 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Spain snap election called in 2025? Sep 05 $5 $0 -10%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Aug 19 $51 −$10 -19%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 19 $32 $0 -1%
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31? Aug 13 $5 +$10 +200%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by August 31? Aug 12 $2 $0 +26%
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 07 $10 $0 -4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 30 $20 +$13 +67%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Biden finish his term? Dec 17 $10 $0 -0%
Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024? Dec 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" during NBC interview? Dec 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024? Dec 09 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" 3 or more times during NBC interview? Dec 09 $7 +$3 +43%
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 02 $10 +$13 +125%
Will Sinn Féin win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election? Dec 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandi Dec 02 $25 +$7 +30%
Will Fianna Fáil win the most seats in the 2024 Irish general election Nov 30 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? BUY No 75¢ $260 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL No 70¢ $6 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $258 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 63¢ $5 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $130 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $15 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $2 10d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $111 12d
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives SELL Yes 99¢ $109 25d
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives BUY Yes 93¢ $20 26d
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives BUY Yes 30¢ $1 43d
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives BUY Yes 51¢ $20 52d
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives BUY Yes 44¢ $20 53d
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United SELL Yes 96¢ $67 53d
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United BUY Yes 91¢ $63 61d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 98¢ $63 62d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 80¢ $51 65d
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 283d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 283d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 283d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? SELL No 14¢ $3 283d
Spain snap election called in 2025? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 294d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? BUY No 50¢ $10 310d
Spain snap election called in 2025? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 310d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 311d
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 311d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 311d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? SELL No 74¢ $41 311d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? SELL No 90¢ $31 311d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? BUY No 91¢ $32 314d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.80 · official $254.80 (match) · 70 history records