Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7fb…8fde crypto 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$276 (+1%) realized +$264 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate72%110W / 43L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$38
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 61% +$31
other 12% +$101
tech 8% +$32
sports 8% +$42
crypto 4% −$29
politics 4% +$47
world 2% −$1
economics 1% +$45
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 33 -11.3% -19.7% 76% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 74 -5.6% -14.6% 77% 5% -8.5%
all 153 -7.0% -15.9% 72% 19% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 19% -8.3%
10% -23.9% 12% -17.0%
15% -31.3% 7% -25.1%
20% -38.0% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$764
Realized+$264
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses110 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)153 / 160
History coverage327d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $448 $450 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $119 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 95¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 99¢ 95¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 25 $396 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 25 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $1,082 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $153 +$7 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $250 +$9 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $313 +$7 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $351 +$9 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $60 +$4 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $350 +$9 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $429 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $247 +$2 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 29 $72 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $598 +$5 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 29 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 29 $139 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 28 $139 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 28 $508 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $621 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May? May 27 $79 +$1 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? May 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 in May? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 25 $793 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 25 $200 +$7 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $24 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 19 $586 −$5 -1%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $200 +$11 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $196 +$9 +5%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April? May 01 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April? May 01 $296 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $907 +$5 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in April? Apr 30 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 29 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 95¢ $34 1m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 95¢ $13 1m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $193 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $261 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $119 10h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $199 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $298 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $80 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $198 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $614 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $198 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $301 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $763.80 · official $763.80 (match) · 621 history records