Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7fb…182c other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+4%) realized −$1 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$22
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% +$84
other 29% −$18
crypto 9% +$8
sports 8% +$14
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -16.3% -24.3% 37% 34% -4.3%
≤30d 49 +14.1% +3.3% 43% 41% +2.5%
≤90d 49 +14.1% +3.3% 43% 41% +2.5%
all 49 +14.1% +3.3% 43% 41% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 41% +2.5%
10% -6.6% 37% -7.4%
15% -15.6% 37% -16.3%
20% -23.9% 29% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage9d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? Yes 43¢ 98¢ $42 $96 +$54 (+128%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 29? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $22 $1 −$22 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 29? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? Jun 29 $22 +$29 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $54 −$14 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? Jun 29 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 28 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $40 +$48 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $7 +$8 +117%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $38 −$37 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 $0 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$13 +649%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$8 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$7 +364%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$16 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 38m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 29? SELL No 74¢ $11 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 28? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 34¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $10 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 89¢ $88 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $15 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 44¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 45¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 23¢ $40 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 34¢ $38 26h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 23¢ $43 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.73 · official $143.73 (match) · 87 history records