Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7f8…0dc3 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-5%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate77%34W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1
sports 28% −$191
crypto 17% +$17
politics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 4 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.4%
≤90d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.4%
all 44 -0.1% -9.7% 77% 2% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -13.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -22.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -29.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$21 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses34 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage550d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 16 $16 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $17 $0 +2%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 27 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Feb 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $17 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $17 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Canadiens Nov 13 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 13 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? Oct 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? Oct 26 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 26 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 26 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 26 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 24 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jul 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 27 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $12 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 20 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 07 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 16 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $264 $0 -0%
Will another player lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 16 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 16 $268 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $41 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 90¢ $37 12d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 98¢ $18 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $18 23d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 98¢ $16 55d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 97¢ $19 55d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 98¢ $17 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $17 84d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $18 113d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 98¢ $16 113d
Will Solana reach $150 in January? BUY No 98¢ $16 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $17 144d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 173d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $17 173d
Stars vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 54¢ $189 217d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 98¢ $26 235d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 98¢ $15 235d
Will Solana dip to $165 in September? BUY No 97¢ $29 265d
Will Solana dip to $170 in September? BUY No 92¢ $10 265d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 97¢ $28 296d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 94¢ $10 296d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 90¢ $11 329d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $25 329d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $17 357d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 357d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $17 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 94¢ $17 388d
Will Solana reach $210 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 422d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 96¢ $19 422d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.92 · official $29.92 (match) · 98 history records