Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7f4…88e6 sports 684 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,345 (-4%) realized −$3,324 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%162W / 520L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$572est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$940
14 days−$1,575
30 days−$1,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$876
other 8% −$2,692
world 5% +$742
crypto 3% −$720
politics 1% −$455
weather 0% −$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -33.3% -39.6% 13% 13% -37.1%
≤30d 95 -9.8% -18.4% 25% 25% -22.9%
≤90d 231 -19.7% -27.4% 24% 23% -25.5%
all 682 -15.0% -23.1% 24% 23% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 23% -14.2%
10% -30.5% 23% -22.4%
15% -37.2% 23% -29.9%
20% -43.3% 22% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$97 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$3,324
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses162 / 520
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$572
Open positions2
Markets (closed)682 / 684
History coverage183d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 26¢ 24¢ $169 $161 −$9 (-5%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 18¢ 16¢ $145 $133 −$12 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $222 −$96 -43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $154 −$81 -52%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $122 +$449 +369%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $165 −$160 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $219 −$128 -59%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $226 −$220 -97%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $240 −$235 -98%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $64 −$62 -98%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $59 −$58 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $149 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $241 −$236 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $403 −$34 -8%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $99 −$97 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $176 −$173 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Sakkari Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $164 +$349 +213%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $46 −$13 -28%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $95 +$365 +383%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $231 −$226 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $197 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $67 +$57 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $34 +$33 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $149 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $82 −$80 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $144 +$87 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 10 $99 −$97 -97%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $218 −$214 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $90 +$129 +143%
Spread: Knicks (-22.5) Jun 09 $72 −$70 -97%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $100 −$97 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 06 $88 −$86 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $67 −$66 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $134 −$130 -97%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $104 −$101 -97%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 05 $111 −$8 -7%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 04 $101 −$98 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 04 $150 −$147 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 03 $144 −$141 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $76 −$66 -87%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $112 −$109 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $134 −$130 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $78 −$76 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $173 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $148 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $57 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $69 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $222 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over $73 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $154 2h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 15¢ $73 2h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $571 2h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 21¢ $108 7h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 20¢ $13 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 10¢ $165 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 38¢ $98 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $130 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $228 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 27¢ $88 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $99 4d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 10¢ $18 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $126 4d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 27¢ $1 4d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 23¢ $239 4d
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY TDK 20¢ $86 4d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 21¢ $64 4d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 31¢ $59 4d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $149 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $67 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $173 6d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Maria Sakkari 32¢ $91 6d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 33¢ $99 6d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 18¢ $99 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.27 · official $293.27 (match) · 1623 history records