Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7f4…b319 other 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$25
politics 27% −$17
sports 19% −$18
crypto 8% −$7
world 6% −$15
economics 5% −$5
culture 5% −$2
finance 2% −$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -1.3% -10.7% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 68 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 114 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 141 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage108d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -3%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $250 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 18 $68 −$2 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $285 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $144 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $18 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $46 $0 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $53 −$3 -6%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $63 −$2 -3%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $160 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $107 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $146 −$2 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $48 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $305 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $704 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $227 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 02 $54 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $36 $0 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $116 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $42 2h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $43 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $26 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $27 14h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 15h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $66 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $68 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 31h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 38h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $66 39h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 44h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 44h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 44h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $43 2d
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $18 2d
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $18 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $41 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $41 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $46 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.46 · official $59.46 (match) · 568 history records