Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa7f1…b052 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,003 (+15%) realized +$1,016 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$536
7 days+$536
14 days+$536
30 days+$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$257
other 10% +$49
crypto 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.8% +20.1% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤30d 5 +32.8% +20.1% 60% 60% +15.7%
≤90d 5 +32.8% +20.1% 60% 60% +15.7%
all 36 -1.7% -11.1% 61% 44% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 44% -0.9%
10% -19.6% 31% -10.4%
15% -27.4% 22% -19.0%
20% -34.5% 22% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$78 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$3,103
Realized+$1,016
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions10
Markets (closed)36 / 46
History coverage164d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $715 $707 −$8 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $700 $704 +$4 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $700 $692 −$8 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $391 $403 +$12 (+3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $132 $131 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 41¢ $132 $123 −$9 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $458 −$196 -43%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $457 +$480 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $458 +$640 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $457 −$450 -98%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 17 $100 +$62 +62%
Thunder vs. Bucks Jan 22 $23 −$19 -83%
Nets vs. Knicks Jan 22 $27 −$22 -80%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 21 $21 +$3 +14%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 21 $34 +$10 +29%
Suns vs. 76ers Jan 21 $8 −$6 -75%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $31 +$23 +74%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 14 $29 −$21 -71%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 14 $31 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $32 +$42 +131%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 11 $35 −$29 -83%
Kings vs. Warriors Jan 10 $62 +$10 +16%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 10 $31 +$6 +20%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $50 −$42 -84%
Clippers vs. Nets Jan 10 $68 −$68 -100%
Pelicans vs. Wizards Jan 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 10 $49 +$5 +10%
Mavericks vs. Jazz Jan 09 $87 +$14 +17%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 09 $20 +$20 +100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 09 $96 +$10 +10%
Heat vs. Bulls Jan 09 $100 −$35 -35%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 08 $50 −$1 -2%
Bucks vs. Warriors Jan 08 $66 +$33 +50%
Lakers vs. Spurs Jan 08 $50 +$9 +18%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jan 08 $30 +$24 +81%
Wizards vs. 76ers Jan 08 $4 −$2 -50%
Clippers vs. Knicks Jan 08 $18 +$6 +33%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jan 08 $30 +$7 +24%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 06 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 24m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 31m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 33m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $18 33m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 33m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $6 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 37m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 37m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 37m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 38m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 43m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 47m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 47m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 48m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 50m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 50m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $18 52m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 54m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 54m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 56m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $80 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,103.15 · official $3,103.15 (match) · 248 history records