Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa7ef…7621 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$338
sports 11% −$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 60% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 60% -9.5%
≤90d 5 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 60% -9.5%
all 5 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 60% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 60% -9.5%
10% -23.4% 20% -18.2%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$342 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$525
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 83¢ 82¢ $528 $525 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $934 +$79 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $445 +$88 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $751 +$128 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $345 −$342 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $201 +$46 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $531 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $934 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $445 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $751 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $345 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $201 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.70 · official $524.70 (match) · 10 history records