Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa7ef…d0a5 crypto 581 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$624 (+5%) realized +$624 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%404W / 177L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$229
14 days+$219
30 days+$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$479
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 +0.8% -8.8% 72% 72% -4.2%
≤30d 576 +2.0% -7.7% 69% 68% -6.3%
≤90d 581 +2.3% -7.4% 70% 68% -6.2%
all 581 +2.3% -7.4% 70% 68% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 68% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 39% -15.2%
15% -24.4% 25% -23.4%
20% -31.8% 18% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$624
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses404 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)581 / 581
History coverage31d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 581 Trades
no open positions (175 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $69 +$16 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $45 +$17 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$9 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$33 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $39 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$23 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$16 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $38 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$27 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$6 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$17 +66%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $49 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $43 +$7 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$5 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $39 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $65 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $43 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $44 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$34 +153%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$35 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $33 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $14 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $36 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1473 history records