Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7e9…b9e1 politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
politics 23% $0
other 14% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 22% 11% -8.6%
≤90d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 22% 11% -8.6%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 19% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage273d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $1 $0 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $35 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 13h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $32 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $12 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $21 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 28d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $31 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $1 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $33 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 54¢ $22 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 54¢ $6 29d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 108d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $2 108d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $13 252d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $11 253d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 256d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $11 257d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 257d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $13 258d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $13 258d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records