Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa7e8…5c8c sports 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,472 (+6%) realized +$18,472 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%194W / 205L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$814per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$864est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$17,997
14 days−$17,242
30 days−$13,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$59,546
crypto 17% −$12,402
other 13% −$19,396
economics 3% −$6,069
politics 2% −$3,134
world 2% −$2,187
finance 1% +$765
tech 1% +$290
culture 0% −$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 33% -63.5%
≤30d 67 +17.3% +6.1% 63% 55% -23.6%
≤90d 190 -21.6% -29.1% 41% 37% -34.4%
all 399 +3.0% -6.8% 49% 42% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 42% -4.7%
10% -15.8% 38% -13.8%
15% -23.9% 34% -22.2%
20% -31.4% 28% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$703) neutral
Persistence
early +24% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$670 vs −$550 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$18,472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses194 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$864
Open positions1
Markets (closed)399 / 400
History coverage534d
Avg bet$814
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,836 −$2,792 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,599 −$1,579 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,004 +$571 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8,273 −$8,273 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,908 +$4,357 +112%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,127 −$367 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10,238 −$10,098 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $173 +$186 +107%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $120 +$8 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $104 −$103 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $91 +$104 +114%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $101 +$81 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $38 +$12 +31%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $1,836 +$1,644 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $1,002 −$992 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $842 −$707 -84%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $595 +$146 +24%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $95 −$94 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $368 −$365 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6,173 +$7,942 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $26 +$27 +101%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $4,899 +$3,169 +65%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $3,972 +$1,024 +26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $3,712 +$261 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $3,415 +$297 +9%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 27 $2,076 +$1,336 +64%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $111 +$51 +46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $132 +$20 +15%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 27 $232 +$32 +14%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $671 −$621 -93%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 26 $288 −$286 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $240 +$210 +88%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $499 +$412 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $7,717 −$5,326 -69%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $1,052 +$1,715 +163%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $6,538 −$6,145 -94%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $55 −$30 -55%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $1,052 −$1,032 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,380 −$1,359 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 24 $1,293 +$1,080 +84%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $214 +$276 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 23 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 23 $130 +$198 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 23 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 23 $207 +$194 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $33 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,836 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,599 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,575 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,004 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $123 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,392 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $543 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,183 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $543 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $269 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $348 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $696 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $696 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,044 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,392 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2,124 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $123 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,636 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,760 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $25 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $812 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $9,307 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $140 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.79 · official $31.79 (match) · 2621 history records