trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 44% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +14.8% | +3.9% | 50% | 10% | -9.3% |
| all | 23 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 52% | 9% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.1% | 9% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -14.2% | 4% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -22.4% | 4% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -30.1% | 4% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $6 | $6 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | -16% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $59 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 04 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 01 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | May 28 | $4 | $0 | +8% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $39 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the next Pope be from Oceania? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 29 | $2 | −$1 | -54% |
| Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? | Apr 16 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 | Apr 09 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 07 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Apr 07 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 06 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? | Apr 05 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $14 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? | Mar 24 | $13 | +$1 | +11% |