Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7e5…0c49 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$102 (-21%) realized −$100 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.8% -35.6% 38% 38% -33.9%
≤30d 16 -28.8% -35.6% 38% 38% -33.9%
≤90d 16 -28.8% -35.6% 38% 38% -33.9%
all 16 -28.8% -35.6% 38% 38% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 38% -33.9%
10% -41.8% 38% -40.2%
15% -47.4% 38% -46.0%
20% -52.5% 31% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ 52¢ $49 $47 −$1 (-3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 58¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-3%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 44¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $37 +$24 +65%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $24 +$18 +76%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $41 −$2 -5%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $61 +$22 +36%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $12 +$10 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $11 +$9 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $11 +$11 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $29 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $13 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $49 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $24 43h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 60¢ $37 45h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 54¢ $52 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $39 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $19 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $29 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $8 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $13 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 59¢ $8 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $4 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $12 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $11 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $18 6d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 51¢ $29 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $11 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 48¢ $16 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $41 7d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $58 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.27 · official $88.27 (match) · 37 history records