Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:10:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7e4…9d1b other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%16W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$5
other 22% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 5% −$6
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 38% 0% -11.3%
all 36 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -11.1%
10% -18.7% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $115 −$4 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $5 −$1 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $1 $0 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $3 $0 +3%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 04 $11 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $10 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Mar 03 $18 −$6 -31%
Will Trump say 'Ukraine' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $16 $0 +3%
Queens vs. Florida Gulf Coast Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $38 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $6 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $32 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $30 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $8 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $38 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $23 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $16 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $39 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $38 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $37 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $31 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.28 · official $38.30 (match) · 109 history records