Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7e4…205c sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,934 (+17%) realized +$1,934 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,894per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$281est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$43
14 days+$1,982
30 days+$1,982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,981
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -70.0% -72.8% 0% 0% -96.4%
≤30d 5 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% +37.2%
≤90d 5 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% +37.2%
all 5 -57.1% -61.2% 20% 20% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.2% 20% +37.2%
10% ← realistic here -64.9% 20% +24.0%
15% -68.3% 20% +12.1%
20% -71.4% 20% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt +52% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,046 vs −$16 · ×126.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.69 per $1 lost it wins $31.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1,934
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$281
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,894
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 39¢ 38¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $43 −$42 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $3 −$1 -40%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $28 −$10 -36%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 08 $3,775 +$2,046 +54%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 58m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 59m
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $93 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $139 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 38¢ $37 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.50 · official $38.50 (match) · 135 history records