Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7e3…31df sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$118 (-4%) realized −$116 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$2
other 26% −$89
sports 16% −$49
world 1% +$10
tech 1% +$2
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 41% -18.7%
≤30d 60 -15.9% -23.9% 48% 42% -18.4%
≤90d 75 -12.6% -21.0% 57% 35% -13.2%
all 75 -12.6% -21.0% 57% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 35% -13.2%
10% -28.5% 27% -21.5%
15% -35.4% 24% -29.1%
20% -41.8% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 32
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions13
Markets (closed)75 / 88
History coverage43d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? No 85¢ 84¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 72¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil leading at halftime? No 59¢ 60¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 25¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? No 37¢ 38¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 33¢ 32¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 30¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Yes 19¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $9 +$12 +124%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $6 +$15 +262%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $37 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $36 +$6 +16%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $11 +$10 +90%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$11 +119%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $8 +$13 +158%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 27 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $32 +$10 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18 +$3 +17%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $12 +$9 +73%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $12 +$9 +76%
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $14 +$7 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$11 +114%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $33 −$33 -99%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $39 +$2 +6%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $13 +$8 +65%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 +$6 +42%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $38 +$4 +10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$10 +91%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $11 +$10 +90%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $15 +$6 +40%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $18 −$17 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 −$5 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $9 −$9 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $36 +$6 +17%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $15 +$27 +172%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $16 +$26 +165%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $22 −$1 -2%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +40%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $35 +$7 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +40%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $22 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $13 1h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $7 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 37¢ $8 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $16 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $13 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY No 85¢ $35 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 86¢ $36 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 47h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 26¢ $6 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY No 89¢ $37 47h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $2 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $9 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $16 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $12 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 2d
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? BUY No 67¢ $4 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $7 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.10 · official $186.31 (match) · 149 history records