Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:27:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7de…1a2a weather 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%64W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$15
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 64 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 64 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses64 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage85d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on June 26? Jun 27 $229 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $229 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $228 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $227 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $227 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $178 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $226 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? Jun 08 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $181 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 3? Jun 04 $145 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 3? Jun 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $128 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $224 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 28? May 28 $88 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $135 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on May 26? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 26? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $223 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 23 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C or below on May 18? May 22 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 15? May 15 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on May 15? May 14 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 14? May 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 14? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 3? May 03 $222 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on May 1? May 01 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 29? Apr 29 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 29? Apr 29 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on April 28? Apr 28 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $217 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on April 26? Apr 25 $218 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 23? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 24? Apr 23 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 23? Apr 23 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on April 23? Apr 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 23? Apr 22 $172 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on April 22? Apr 21 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 21? Apr 21 $146 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $229 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $229 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $228 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $68 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $160 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $227 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $227 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $49 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $178 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $226 20d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $226 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $181 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $45 22d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $70 23d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $156 24d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 24d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $64 24d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $48 25d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $145 25d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $32 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $128 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $97 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $224 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $135 32d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $88 32d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $35 34d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $99 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.32 · official $229.32 (match) · 135 history records