Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa7da…2e69 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,504 (+21%) realized +$1,479 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,014per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,271
7 days+$1,336
14 days+$1,349
30 days+$1,349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$1,377
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +8.6% -1.8% 67% 33% +14.5%
≤30d 5 -14.0% -22.2% 60% 20% +13.0%
≤90d 5 -14.0% -22.2% 60% 20% +13.0%
all 5 -14.0% -22.2% 60% 20% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 20% +13.0%
10% -29.6% 20% +2.2%
15% -36.4% 20% -7.7%
20% -42.7% 0% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$456 vs −$9 · ×52.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×78.41 per $1 lost it wins $78.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,141
Realized+$1,479
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$1,014
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 87¢ 97¢ $588 $654 +$66 (+11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 85¢ 78¢ $527 $486 −$41 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $98 −$14 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3,614 +$1,285 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,328 +$65 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $372 +$16 +4%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 1 above $305? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $32 30m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $31 38m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 48m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $98 54m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $98 55m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 86¢ $230 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $229 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 85¢ $197 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $298 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $550 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $250 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $200 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $54 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,154 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,096 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,097 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $971 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $971 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $239 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,203 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $1,204 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $216 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $210 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $213 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $320 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $323 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $120 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,140.67 · official $1,138.45 (match) · 46 history records