Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7da…92d9 politics 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 636d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 68L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$13
other 13% −$2
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 71 -3.2% -12.4% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage636d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 26 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $57 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $55 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Zion Williamson lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Lunchly recall in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will MAGA reach $1b first? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Elon Musk arrested in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chris Jones win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Paolo Banchero lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Caleb Williams be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in November? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jets win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Iran strike on Israel before December? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Clemson win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Darius Garland lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
John Ratcliffe confirmed as director of the CIA? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Ryan Walters for Education Secretary? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $57 13h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 38d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 38d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $57 43d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $57 44d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 47d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 47d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $58 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $58 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 70d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $58 80d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $58 80d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $58 97d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $58 97d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 101d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 102d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $58 104d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $58 104d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $58 106d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $57 106d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 108d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 108d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 108d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 111d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records