Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7d9…c3cb crypto 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$364 (-3%) realized −$297 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%115W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$186
7 days−$458
14 days−$438
30 days−$517
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$64
weather 27% −$360
other 9% −$201
world 5% −$24
sports 4% +$26
politics 3% +$44
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 38% -21.2%
≤30d 60 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 28% -17.9%
≤90d 90 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 24% -13.1%
all 186 -0.2% -9.7% 62% 30% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 30% -12.3%
10% -18.4% 19% -20.7%
15% -26.3% 11% -28.4%
20% -33.5% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses115 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage202d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $200 $177 −$23 (-11%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $201 $154 −$47 (-24%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $101 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$13 +602%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$20 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $103 +$117 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$91 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $201 −$34 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $203 −$106 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $302 −$296 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $100 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $196 +$79 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $302 +$29 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$25 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $92 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $251 +$20 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 −$33 -33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $201 +$14 +7%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $317 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 03 $10 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $15 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 03 $115 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $102 +$28 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 52m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 59m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 88¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 86¢ $15 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.51 · official $443.51 (match) · 658 history records