Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7d8…2374 sports 353 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$174 (+2%) realized +$151 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate56%194W / 155L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$260
14 days−$260
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$161
other 27% +$111
politics 11% +$32
crypto 2% −$21
world 1% −$99
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 45% -19.1%
≤30d 38 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 45% -19.1%
≤90d 84 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 39% -14.6%
all 349 +5.6% -4.4% 56% 47% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 47% -7.9%
10% -13.6% 45% -16.7%
15% -21.9% 45% -24.7%
20% -29.6% 44% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses194 / 155
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)349 / 353
History coverage163d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 66¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 68¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $33 +$24 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $34 +$43 +129%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 +$47 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $34 +$41 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $334 −$330 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $89 +$83 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$41 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$20 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $33 +$29 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $31 +$66 +216%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $31 +$31 +97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$227 +442%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $61 +$55 +90%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $212 +$135 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$54 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $32 +$36 +109%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$174 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 +$43 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Apr 06 $8 $0 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 06 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $87 −$9 -11%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $77 +$2 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $87 +$4 +5%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $60 +$8 +13%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $113 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $98 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $69 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $33 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $33 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $33 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $34 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $33 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $34 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $33 26h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $34 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $34 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $334 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $71 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $30 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $89 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $33 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.81 · official $386.81 (match) · 2644 history records