Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7d5…559e other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$297 (+1%) realized +$295 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate21%40W / 154L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$4,509
sports 11% −$693
crypto 2% −$154
culture 1% −$66
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -81.3% -83.1% 8% 7% -69.0%
≤30d 138 -38.2% -44.1% 14% 13% -52.6%
≤90d 194 -35.3% -41.4% 21% 16% -39.9%
all 194 -35.3% -41.4% 21% 16% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 16% -39.9%
10% -47.0% 15% -45.7%
15% -52.2% 12% -50.9%
20% -56.9% 11% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +27% → late -98% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$115 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$295
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses40 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions2
Markets (closed)194 / 107
History coverage64d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 44¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$76 -132%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $145 −$140 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $38 −$75 -195%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $38 −$70 -183%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $115 −$144 -125%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (- BUY 7¢ $21 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $102 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Germany win o BUY 12¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 24¢ $55 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 15¢ $26 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Moroc BUY 21¢ $31 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $21 30h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 9¢ $21 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $51 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 36¢ $104 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $102 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $102 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $202 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $7 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $26 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 45¢ $5 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 45¢ $1 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 45¢ $17 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.26 · official $319.87 · 800 history records