Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7d3…33bc world 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,300 (-12%) realized −$1,813 · open −$487
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,425per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,538
7 days−$3,642
14 days−$3,476
30 days−$3,212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$3,699
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.6% -47.1% 14% 14% -30.1%
≤30d 11 -32.1% -38.6% 27% 27% -26.1%
≤90d 11 -32.1% -38.6% 27% 27% -26.1%
all 11 -32.1% -38.6% 27% 27% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 27% -26.1%
10% -44.5% 27% -33.2%
15% -49.8% 9% -39.6%
20% -54.8% 0% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$453 vs −$572 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$1,813
Unrealized−$487
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage17d
Avg bet$1,425
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No $728 $263 −$465 (-64%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No $44 $14 −$30 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 15 $270 −$232 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,735 −$750 -27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 15 $1,040 −$795 -76%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $2,746 −$2,067 -75%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $5,881 −$571 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $3,130 +$876 +28%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $233 −$104 -44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $711 +$165 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $670 +$319 +48%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $112 −$37 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $19 −$18 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No $146 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $52 22m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes $27 22m
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No $66 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $236 24m
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No $13 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No $312 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No $33 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $260 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 15¢ $61 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $104 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $543 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $139 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No $39 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $260 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $520 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $260 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1,207 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $551 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $104 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes $12 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes $81 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $832 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $834 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $104 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $104 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $220 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $31 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $936 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.43 · official $335.43 (match) · 69 history records