Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A7 0xa7d2…f954 other 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,855 (+4%) realized +$7,930 · open −$4,075
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%125W / 107L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$2,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days−$861
14 days−$2,246
30 days−$3,385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 45% +$1,481
other 41% +$706
politics 4% −$716
world 4% −$2,107
economics 3% −$1,926
finance 2% +$6,629
sports 0% +$200
crypto 0% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.8% -13.8% 71% 57% -43.7%
≤30d 59 +12.6% +1.9% 59% 41% -25.5%
≤90d 164 +2.9% -6.9% 55% 39% +0.0%
all 232 +13.2% +2.4% 54% 39% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 39% +0.1%
10% -7.4% 28% -9.5%
15% -16.3% 25% -18.3%
20% -24.5% 19% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$201 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$2,686
Realized+$7,930
Unrealized−$4,075
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses125 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)232 / 261
History coverage185d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $782 $990 +$208 (+27%)
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $328 $310 −$18 (-6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 34¢ 96¢ $85 $242 +$156 (+183%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $251 $205 −$46 (-18%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $134 $136 +$2 (+1%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 54¢ 40¢ $155 $114 −$41 (-27%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 98¢ $99 $112 +$13 (+13%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 82¢ 85¢ $106 $109 +$3 (+3%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 81¢ 84¢ $81 $84 +$3 (+4%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 27, 2026? Yes 59¢ 95¢ $33 $54 +$20 (+62%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 10¢ 32¢ $15 $47 +$32 (+218%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $868 $47 −$822 (-95%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 60¢ 2¢ $1,095 $44 −$1,051 (-96%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2,025 $36 −$1,989 (-98%)
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 80¢ 96¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 44¢ 6¢ $235 $31 −$204 (-87%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $49 $26 −$22 (-46%)
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+349%)
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 88¢ 90¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $59 $4 −$55 (-93%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $55 $4 −$51 (-93%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 40¢ 2¢ $74 $4 −$70 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 25 $299 +$158 +53%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $51 +$22 +43%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $172 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $42 +$15 +35%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 21 $387 +$136 +35%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 20 $430 −$224 -52%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $998 −$968 -97%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 17 $119 −$33 -27%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $12 +$13 +105%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $48 +$10 +20%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $33 +$38 +116%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 15 $200 −$192 -96%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 15 $74 +$1 +2%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $55 +$45 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $816 −$816 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $490 −$490 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $965 +$88 +9%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $147 +$6 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $426 +$51 +12%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $490 +$212 +43%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $190 +$35 +18%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $1,340 +$22 +2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d Jun 11 $1 +$9 +617%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$12 -60%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May? Jun 10 $119 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $488 +$77 +16%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $646 +$156 +24%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $216 +$777 +359%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 09 $82 −$63 -78%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $131 +$20 +15%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 08 $53 −$48 -91%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $488 +$189 +39%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $193 +$784 +406%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $128 +$228 +178%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 02 $254 +$168 +66%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$15 +41%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $79 +$134 +170%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 01 $819 −$68 -8%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 01 $899 +$81 +9%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $45 −$37 -82%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $37 −$37 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $2,031 −$896 -44%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $58 +$46 +79%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $746 −$746 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by July 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 1h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 82¢ $82 11h
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 81¢ $81 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 44¢ $240 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $72 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $130 15h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 88¢ $12 15h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL Yes 12¢ $3 15h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 83¢ $24 15h
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL Yes 1¢ $3 15h
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 28¢ $2 16h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 20¢ $11 18h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 5¢ $3 18h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 16¢ $37 18h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 5¢ $1 18h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 1¢ $4 18h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY Yes 50¢ $3 19h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 99¢ $164 23h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY Yes 50¢ $3 23h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 99¢ $161 24h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY Yes 40¢ $4 24h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY Yes 62¢ $121 24h
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worl BUY Yes 62¢ $3 24h
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,686.08 · official $2,685.94 (match) · 2439 history records