Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7d0…8247 other 255 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$27
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 24% −$21
politics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$7
economics 5% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 5% −$10
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)255 / 255
History coverage133d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 255 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $496 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $439 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $348 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $145 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $539 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $531 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $262 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $256 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $311 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 05 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $290 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $628 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $388 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 1m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 3h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 5h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 6h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 8h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 9h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 11h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 29h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 34h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 35h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 37h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 39h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 40h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 42h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 47h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1384 history records