Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7c7…19e7 sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$50 (+4%) realized +$55 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%31W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$57
14 days+$87
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$41
other 25% +$22
world 9% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +17.8% +6.6% 68% 68% +14.7%
≤30d 39 +12.2% +1.5% 69% 69% +6.5%
≤90d 39 +12.2% +1.5% 69% 69% +6.5%
all 50 +4.4% -5.5% 62% 62% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 62% -5.3%
10% -14.6% 48% -14.3%
15% -22.8% 42% -22.6%
20% -30.4% 34% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses31 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage152d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 83¢ 80¢ $170 $164 −$6 (-4%)
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 100¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+51%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 100¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+54%)
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+108%)
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 55¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+82%)
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 62¢ 100¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+61%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Under 41¢ 56¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 75¢ 71¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 57¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 50¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? No 64¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 69¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Over 53¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score No 73¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Iceland vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score No 70¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Crystal Palace FC 57¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Saski Baskonia 73¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
RCD Mallorca vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Diana Shnaider 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Under 55¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Real Madrid 88¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 +$11 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +140%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $10 +$7 +66%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $32 +$25 +77%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $20 +$11 +53%
Iceland vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 +$8 +78%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $10 +$8 +81%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$11 +107%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 07 $10 +$6 +61%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $30 +$6 +19%
Saski Baskonia vs. Joventut Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $10 +$2 +24%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 +$4 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $10 +$6 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $10 +$8 +78%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: San Marino (-1.5) Jun 06 $10 +$2 +21%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $19 +$17 +86%
José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31? May 28 $114 +$15 +13%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $30 −$30 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $62 −$12 -20%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $42 +$15 +35%
Boxing: Lopez vs. Stevenson Feb 01 $59 +$20 +33%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 31 $50 +$9 +19%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs los kogutos (BO3) Jan 18 $27 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs los kogutos - Map 2 Winner Jan 18 $100 −$17 -16%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs los kogutos - Map 1 Winner Jan 18 $100 −$17 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $8 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $60 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $9 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $10 7h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 19h
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise BUY Olise 57¢ $10 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 84¢ $10 25h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $10 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 39h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner BUY United States 60¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Canada 69¢ $7 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $20 4d
Iceland vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $30 6d
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 7d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 7d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 7d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 62¢ $10 7d
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.53 · official $387.53 (match) · 92 history records