Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A7 0xa7c6…4314 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,084 (+5%) realized +$644 · open +$440
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,440now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$558
14 days+$767
30 days+$754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$375
sports 28% +$1,505
world 1% −$8
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 28% -1.9%
≤30d 36 -19.8% -27.5% 44% 33% -1.1%
≤90d 45 -15.9% -23.9% 42% 33% -1.6%
all 45 -15.9% -23.9% 42% 33% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 33% -1.6%
10% -31.2% 33% -11.0%
15% -37.9% 33% -19.6%
20% -44.0% 27% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$156 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,440
Realized+$644
Unrealized+$440
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage36d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,440 +$440 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $409 −$225 -55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$22 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,451 +$176 +7%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $80 −$44 -55%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,044 +$879 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 −$600 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 +$164 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,134 +$1,015 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,421 −$1,070 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,022 +$1,152 +57%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $510 −$480 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $663 +$51 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $296 −$8 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $336 −$11 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $418 −$286 -69%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $622 +$347 +56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,582 −$941 -60%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$39 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 −$29 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,500 +$81 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $999 +$568 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $106 +$48 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$117 +128%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 23 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 23 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $10 +$3 +28%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 19 $9 +$11 +122%
LoL: SU Esports vs BoostGate Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 19 $9 −$6 -64%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $7 +$13 +185%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $76 −$27 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $184 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $183 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $409 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,052 2h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,001 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,068 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $294 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $223 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $214 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $223 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,017 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 33h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $233 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,149 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 44¢ $1,351 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,439.66 · official $1,439.66 (match) · 116 history records