Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7c3…3a41 crypto 313 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,007 (-11%) realized −$2,007 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%150W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$98
14 days−$133
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$515
finance 20% −$410
other 11% −$60
sports 9% −$584
world 8% −$5
politics 6% −$616
tech 0% −$5
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -50.4%
≤30d 21 -22.5% -29.8% 48% 29% -28.2%
≤90d 132 -11.3% -19.8% 52% 41% -15.9%
all 304 -15.6% -23.6% 49% 39% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 39% -20.2%
10% -30.9% 30% -27.8%
15% -37.6% 21% -34.8%
20% -43.7% 12% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized−$2,007
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses150 / 154
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)304 / 313
History coverage177d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 22¢ $152 $162 +$10 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-43%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 22 $179 −$100 -56%
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 −$7 -39%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$21 -33%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 −$11 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 30 $167 −$164 -98%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $131 +$164 +125%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $10 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $50 +$3 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $13 +$7 +51%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $11 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $22 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 24 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $17 +$2 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? May 21 $11 −$3 -23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 20 $27 +$4 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Shmitt as the next United States Attor May 20 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 19 $22 +$6 +26%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? May 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 18 $167 −$167 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 18 $85 +$4 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Coast Guard event? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Jeanine Pirro as the next United States Att May 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump post "Chair" on Truth Social this week? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 17 $7 +$3 +50%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 16 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto May 16 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $9 +$4 +44%
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? May 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 +$13 +257%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $5 +$14 +271%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $80 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $79 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $11 26h
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $12 26h
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $5 2d
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 55¢ $5 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $11 4d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 18¢ $11 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $3 5d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $3 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $11 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $9 6d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 29¢ $9 6d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $3 11d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $10 11d
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $10 11d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $10 11d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $10 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $44 11d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $10 18d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $5 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 18d
Will Viktor Gyökeres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $11 22d
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $10 22d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $10 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $10 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $21 22d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 23d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $11 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.95 · official $232.95 (match) · 1189 history records