Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
A7 0xa7b9…e9d1 sports 26 markets active 3d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,941 (+23%) realized +$2,941 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$5,136
crypto 23% −$253
other 18% −$2,174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +126.5% +104.9% 33% 33% -8.9%
≤30d 26 +52.7% +38.1% 38% 38% +11.1%
≤90d 26 +52.7% +38.1% 38% 38% +11.1%
all 26 +52.7% +38.1% 38% 38% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.1% 38% +11.1%
10% +24.9% 35% +0.5%
15% +12.8% 31% -9.2%
20% +1.8% 27% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$540) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +48% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$941 vs −$419 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage5d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,045 −$1,995 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $126 +$1,918 +1519%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$17 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $962 −$948 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,332 +$1,852 +139%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $161 −$157 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $612 +$488 +80%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,019 −$696 -68%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $410 −$400 -98%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $167 −$162 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $205 −$200 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $136 −$133 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,333 +$2,137 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $417 +$629 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $106 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $727 −$380 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $254 +$59 +23%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $392 +$1,998 +510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $265 +$128 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $88 +$176 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $463 −$387 -84%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $540 −$523 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,033 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,044 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $126 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $962 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 69¢ $161 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 68¢ $475 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 49¢ $1,371 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 32¢ $1,177 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $205 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $205 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 19¢ $205 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $307 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 22¢ $205 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $205 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 16¢ $58 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 16¢ $103 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 58¢ $419 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 60¢ $682 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 29¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 31¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 32¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 33¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 33¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 34¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 18¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 25¢ $102 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Global Esports 25¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records