Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A7 0xa7b8…0d4c other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,031 (+15%) realized +$2,365 · open −$334

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate56%9W / 7L

Drawdown69%max

Avg bet$506per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$178est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$3,668now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$16

7 days+$2,039

14 days+$2,076

30 days+$2,076

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+8.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+20.1%	+8.7%	50%	50%	+17.4%
≤30d	16	+19.7%	+8.3%	56%	50%	+17.1%
≤90d	16	+19.7%	+8.3%	56%	50%	+17.1%
all	16	+19.7%	+8.3%	56%	50%	+17.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.3%	50%	+17.1%
10%	-2.1%	44%	+5.9%
15%	-11.5%	38%	-4.3%
20%	-20.2%	31%	-13.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +61% → late -22% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$504 vs −$352 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$3,668

Realized+$2,365

Unrealized−$334

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses9 / 7

Est. fees paid−$178

Open positions10

Markets (closed)16 / 26

History coverage11d

Avg bet$506

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown69%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	15¢	12¢	$1,404	$1,154	−$250 (-18%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	64¢	61¢	$1,020	$971	−$49 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$303	$345	+$42 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$297	$249	−$49 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$200	$208	+$8 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$206	$196	−$10 (-5%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	Yes	8¢	9¢	$144	$170	+$26 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	8¢	$200	$152	−$48 (-24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$120	$119	−$1 (-1%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$108	$104	−$4 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$268	−$18	-7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$203	+$143	+70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$111	−$68	-61%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$366	+$514	+141%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$307	−$267	-87%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$404	−$188	-47%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$101	+$18	+18%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	Jun 14	$183	+$165	+90%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	Jun 14	$554	+$1,838	+332%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	Jun 14	$368	−$360	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$697	+$1,203	+172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 12	$3,244	−$1,462	-45%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$1,666	+$621	+37%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 08	$101	+$1	+1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev	Jun 07	$111	+$35	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$37	32m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	7¢	$53	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$166	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	8¢	$106	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	8¢	$76	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	28¢	$179	1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$18	2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$184	4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$111	4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$123	11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$205	11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	17¢	$20	23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	17¢	$19	23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$708	46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	34¢	$28	46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$37	46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$64	46h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$71	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	28¢	$33	47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	41¢	$39	47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$92	47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$122	47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$61	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$92	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	33¢	$28	47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	36¢	$27	47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	37¢	$28	47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	30¢	$27	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,667.91 · official $3,668.06 (match) · 114 history records