Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A7 0xa7b5…a079 crypto 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$522 (+1%) realized +$550 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate82%225W / 50L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$158
14 days+$287
30 days+$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$368
world 12% +$283
tech 9% +$100
other 8% −$271
sports 1% −$21
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 11% -8.6%
≤30d 100 -4.1% -13.2% 79% 10% -8.4%
≤90d 179 -6.1% -15.0% 79% 10% -8.5%
all 275 -5.1% -14.2% 82% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 10% -8.8%
10% -22.4% 6% -17.6%
15% -29.9% 5% -25.5%
20% -36.8% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$1,991
Realized+$550
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses225 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)275 / 296
History coverage108d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.75 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $657 $658 +$1 (+0%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $213 $211 −$2 (-1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026? No 98¢ 90¢ $229 $210 −$20 (-9%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $114 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 97¢ $109 $107 −$2 (-2%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $100 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of June 15 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 99¢ $90 $89 −$0 (-1%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 15 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $212 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,499 +$16 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,498 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +319%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,811 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $224 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $2,022 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$7 -35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,146 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $871 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,015 +$6 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $193 +$6 +3%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1,032 +$98 +10%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $620 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $147 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 Week of June 8 2 Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $117 Week of June 8 2 Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $5.50? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $6.50? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.25 Week of June 8 Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $6.00? Jun 12 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $3.50? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 8 above $148? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 8 above $147? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $194 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,205 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $568 −$52 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,267 +$18 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $29 −$9 -31%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,555 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $212 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $260 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of June 15 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 15 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $147.50 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $145 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 99¢ $171 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 15 BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 15 BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of June 15 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 15 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.75 Week of June 1 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of June 1 BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $460 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $136 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $902 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,991.07 · official $1,991.07 (match) · 804 history records