Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7b5…fa78 other 177 markets active 7h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$897 (+2%) realized +$4,289 · open −$3,392
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate42%52W / 72L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$38,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$553
14 days+$1,742
30 days+$1,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$86
other 31% +$297
sports 14% −$355
world 7% −$353
tech 4% −$566
crypto 1% +$28
finance 0% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -49.2% -54.0% 27% 23% -29.4%
≤30d 62 -24.6% -31.8% 35% 23% +7.0%
≤90d 124 -5.1% -14.2% 42% 29% +1.7%
all 124 -5.1% -14.2% 42% 29% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 29% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 23% -8.1%
15% -29.9% 20% -17.0%
20% -36.8% 18% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$75 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$38,640
Realized+$4,289
Unrealized−$3,392
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses52 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions64
Markets (closed)124 / 177
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$226
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $7,422 $7,076 −$346 (-5%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $4,271 $5,428 +$1,157 (+27%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $4,132 $4,509 +$377 (+9%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3,690 $2,951 −$739 (-20%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3,012 $1,530 −$1,482 (-49%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,327 $1,488 +$161 (+12%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $788 $1,097 +$309 (+39%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $664 $1,003 +$339 (+51%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $525 $963 +$438 (+83%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,057 $953 −$104 (-10%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $928 $909 −$19 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $538 $802 +$264 (+49%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $650 $690 +$40 (+6%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $643 $599 −$43 (-7%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $623 $562 −$60 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $494 $443 −$51 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $321 $434 +$113 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $424 $424 −$0 (-0%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 62¢ 16¢ $1,426 $379 −$1,046 (-73%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $231 $378 +$148 (+64%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $343 $354 +$11 (+3%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $782 $351 −$431 (-55%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $400 $328 −$72 (-18%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $347 $300 −$47 (-14%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $349 $296 −$53 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 23 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 23 $155 −$155 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $68 +$207 +306%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $142 +$58 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 −$26 -37%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $177 +$23 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $129 +$71 +55%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $166 +$34 +21%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $213 −$212 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 Jun 17 $477 −$17 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $134 +$76 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$71 +146%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $459 −$254 -55%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $586 +$1,285 +219%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 Jun 14 $26 −$12 -48%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $104 +$84 +81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $180 +$820 +456%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $108 +$192 +177%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $67 +$5 +7%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1,046 +$54 +5%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $188 +$13 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $59 +$33 +55%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $487 +$11 +2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $387 −$387 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $275 +$1,325 +482%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $59 7h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $1 7h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $3 7h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $142 7h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $37 8h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $13 8h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $18 8h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 9h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 10h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 12h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $81 15h
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 15h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 16h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 17h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $117 17h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 21h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 22h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 23h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 24h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 26h
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Michael Kim win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,640.35 · official $38,853.72 (match) · 3500 history records