Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7b3…246a sports 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 621d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 621d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$30,537 (+3%) realized +$30,713 · open −$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%152W / 96L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$3,838per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$707est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$7,040now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 621d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$60,281
sports 18% −$8,602
economics 15% +$2,783
other 11% +$7,389
world 1% +$417
tech 1% −$3,744
culture 1% −$277
crypto 0% +$792
finance 0% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -49.8% -54.5% 50% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 22 +18.5% +7.2% 82% 50% -2.0%
≤90d 47 -14.9% -23.0% 60% 38% -18.2%
all 248 -5.3% -14.3% 61% 47% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 47% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 32% -13.0%
15% -30.0% 23% -21.4%
20% -36.9% 15% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$1,833) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$840 vs −$711 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$7,040
Realized+$30,713
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses152 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$707
Open positions10
Markets (closed)248 / 258
History coverage621d ⚠
Avg bet$3,838
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $1,740 $1,815 +$75 (+4%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $1,104 $1,384 +$280 (+25%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 44¢ $1,044 $989 −$56 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 32¢ $1,002 $581 −$420 (-42%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 71¢ 74¢ $547 $574 +$27 (+5%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $556 $561 +$6 (+1%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 68¢ $521 $532 +$12 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $360 $325 −$35 (-10%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 24¢ $322 $267 −$56 (-17%)
Will DR Congo be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $22 $12 −$9 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $80 −$78 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $995 +$5 +0%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,920 +$80 +4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $3,896 +$781 +20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $986 +$73 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $209 +$13 +6%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $615 +$351 +57%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $252 +$192 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,629 −$710 -44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $933 +$178 +19%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $2,048 +$154 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $8,254 +$285 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $755 −$747 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $729 −$719 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,484 +$516 +35%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $544 +$11 +2%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 30 $663 +$447 +67%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $411 +$301 +73%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $40 +$76 +188%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $846 +$486 +58%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $556 +$555 +100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 27 $441 +$114 +26%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $361 +$185 +51%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corn May 24 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $809 −$709 -88%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 22 $135 +$61 +45%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10,444 +$667 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $50,923 +$3,890 +8%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 19 $476 −$476 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 18 $833 −$833 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 18 $918 −$910 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 18 $584 −$584 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 18 $722 −$722 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 15 $13 +$5 +39%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $419 +$136 +32%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 14 $440 +$560 +127%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 14 $520 −$515 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $361 −$361 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $548 −$542 -99%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $18,374 −$15,097 -82%
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $132 +$23 +17%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $2,066 +$156 +8%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-03-28? Apr 07 $306 +$138 +45%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 23 $49,718 +$155 +0%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $451 +$86 +19%
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 11 $620 +$46 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $551 1h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $160 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $91 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $116 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $129 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $8 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $47 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $90 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $153 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $432 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $149 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $95 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $64 2d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $4 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $1 2d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $4 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 3d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,039.83 · official $7,039.83 (match) · 3500 history records