Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:55:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7b0…0ce2 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized +$4 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate82%36W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$12
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +20.2% +8.7% 93% 70% +7.8%
≤30d 44 +13.3% +2.5% 82% 68% -0.7%
≤90d 44 +13.3% +2.5% 82% 68% -0.7%
all 44 +13.3% +2.5% 82% 68% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 68% -0.7%
10% -7.3% 52% -10.2%
15% -16.3% 39% -18.9%
20% -24.5% 25% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses36 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage10d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 116 history records