Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7ad…e9c8 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$115 (-4%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%47W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$5
weather 16% $0
world 9% −$52
politics 6% −$73
finance 4% $0
other 4% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 44 -1.2% -10.6% 95% 5% -13.8%
all 50 -3.0% -12.2% 94% 4% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -13.4%
10% -20.6% 4% -21.7%
15% -28.3% 4% -29.2%
20% -35.3% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$44 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses47 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage122d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on May 24? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 27? Jun 04 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $61 −$59 -97%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $134 −$73 -55%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 9? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 4 2026? May 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 10? May 11 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 08 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 08 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on May 3? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 02 $12 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $12 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27? Apr 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? Apr 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 25? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on April 25? Apr 26 $127 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 18? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on April 21? Apr 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 80°F or higher on April 16? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 16? Apr 18 $128 $0 +0%
Spread: Kawasaki Frontale (-1.5) Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 12? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 12? Apr 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on April 10? Apr 11 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $141 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 on April 6? Apr 08 $141 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 5? Apr 06 $139 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on April 2? Apr 04 $140 $0 +0%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Apr 01 $11 +$6 +50%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 17? Mar 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 63°F or below on March 17? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 16 $120 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1? Mar 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 February 23-March 1? Mar 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $81 12d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $80 23d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or below on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $12 35d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $80 35d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? SELL Yes 34¢ $61 44d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 71¢ $134 44d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $22 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 47d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 50d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $35 50d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 52d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $65 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 4 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 55d
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 56d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $20 56d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 61d
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $12 61d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 61d
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on BUY No 100¢ $18 61d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $15 61d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 April 20-26? BUY No 100¢ $100 62d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $17 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $12 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.40 · official $104.40 (match) · 105 history records