trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -19.4% | -27.1% | 0% | 0% | -27.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -9.1% | -17.8% | 33% | 0% | -20.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -16.9% | -24.8% | 50% | 25% | -28.1% |
| all | 23 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 78% | 22% | -11.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.2% | 22% | -11.1% |
| 10% | -19.7% | 13% | -19.6% |
| 15% | -27.4% | 0% | -27.4% |
| 20% | -34.5% | 0% | -34.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery | Adrian Mannarino | 55¢ | 56¢ | $110 | $111 | +$1 (+1%) |
| HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery | Arthur Fery | 45¢ | 44¢ | $90 | $89 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Jun 17 | $434 | −$84 | -19% |
| Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? | Jun 04 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? | Jun 04 | $217 | −$17 | -8% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? | May 09 | $136 | −$136 | -100% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Apr 04 | $192 | +$8 | +4% |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Mar 29 | $567 | −$214 | -38% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar | Mar 26 | $41 | +$4 | +11% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 24 | $200 | +$30 | +15% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | Mar 05 | $462 | +$18 | +4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 10 | $305 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 | Feb 10 | $79 | +$21 | +27% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 27? | Feb 10 | $494 | +$116 | +24% |
| Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 | Jan 26 | $304 | +$96 | +32% |
| Infinex FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Jan 16 | $387 | $0 | -0% |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | Jan 16 | $231 | +$13 | +6% |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 07 | $382 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 | Jan 02 | $352 | $0 | +0% |
| Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025? | Dec 30 | $377 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 18 | $379 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 17 | $379 | $0 | +0% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 14 | $382 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Dec 10 | $382 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 | Dec 04 | $748 | +$2 | +0% |