Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7ac…4ad3 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$133 (-2%) realized −$132 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$84
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$84
politics 19% −$203
tech 15% +$21
culture 15% +$1
crypto 6% +$116
world 3% +$13
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -19.4% -27.1% 0% 0% -27.1%
≤30d 3 -9.1% -17.8% 33% 0% -20.3%
≤90d 8 -16.9% -24.8% 50% 25% -28.1%
all 23 -1.8% -11.2% 78% 22% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 22% -11.1%
10% -19.7% 13% -19.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$90 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage195d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 55¢ 56¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 45¢ 44¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $434 −$84 -19%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? Jun 04 $217 −$17 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $192 +$8 +4%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 29 $567 −$214 -38%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 26 $41 +$4 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 24 $200 +$30 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Mar 05 $462 +$18 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 10 $305 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $79 +$21 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 27? Feb 10 $494 +$116 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 26 $304 +$96 +32%
Infinex FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 16 $387 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 16 $231 +$13 +6%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 07 $382 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $352 $0 +0%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025? Dec 30 $377 +$2 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 18 $379 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $379 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 14 $382 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $382 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $748 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $15 30m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $4 43m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $6 47m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $47 51m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 55¢ $38 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $56 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 45¢ $34 1h
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 57¢ $53 12d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 57¢ $33 12d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 57¢ $1 12d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 57¢ $27 12d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $83 13d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 13d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 19d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY No 41¢ $82 20d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $69 38d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $9 38d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $22 38d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $36 38d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 38d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $319 62d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $434 65d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $200 73d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 79d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 30¢ $176 79d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 82d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 82d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.99 · official $199.99 (match) · 174 history records