Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7aa…cd9f world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$3
other 16% −$5
sports 2% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 15 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -8.9%
all 31 -5.9% -14.9% 42% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage466d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -21%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $33 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $33 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $66 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $37 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $73 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 -4%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $5 $0 +10%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $13 $0 +4%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $13 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $35 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $1 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $3 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $26 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $5 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 36h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $15 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $16 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $33 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $33 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $10 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $23 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records