Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa7aa…56f2 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%15W / 150L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$33
14 days−$38
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$85
other 26% −$19
sports 20% −$12
crypto 6% −$11
economics 5% −$8
world 4% −$7
culture 3% −$3
finance 2% −$14
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 68 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 151 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.2%
all 165 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 150
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage101d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $69 −$4 -6%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $66 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $767 −$2 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 16 $60 −$2 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $61 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $59 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $157 −$3 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $257 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $60 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $47 −$11 -23%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $319 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $60 $0 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 09 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $220 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $188 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $60 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $94 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $512 −$60 -12%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $318 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $105 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $265 −$2 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $294 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $116 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $66 43m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $65 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $55 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 9h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $72 9h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $72 15h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 95¢ $51 15h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $51 22h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $58 23h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $58 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 36h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 91¢ $43 37h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $45 44h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 45h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $60 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $54 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.83 · official $65.83 (match) · 718 history records