Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa7a8…9441 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+18%) realized +$78 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$24
sports 36% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -42.1% -47.6% 50% 50% -25.1%
≤30d 4 +65.6% +49.8% 75% 75% +36.2%
≤90d 6 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 50% +18.8%
all 6 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 50% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 50% +18.8%
10% -9.7% 33% +7.4%
15% -18.4% 33% -2.9%
20% -26.4% 33% -12.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$17 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage43d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $124 +$87 +70%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 23 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 11h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $58 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 42h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $124 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 43d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 43d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.39 · official $188.39 (match) · 19 history records