Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa79d…6b36 sports 360 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$80 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%118W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$206
14 days+$414
30 days+$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$86
crypto 24% −$207
world 20% +$87
other 11% −$61
finance 10% +$101
tech 4% +$87
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +56.8% +41.9% 53% 53% +39.5%
≤30d 138 +14.2% +3.3% 37% 35% +9.5%
≤90d 327 -12.6% -20.9% 32% 29% -14.2%
all 352 -9.2% -17.8% 34% 30% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 30% -11.5%
10% -25.7% 28% -20.0%
15% -32.9% 26% -27.7%
20% -39.5% 23% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses118 / 234
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions8
Markets (closed)352 / 360
History coverage114d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $10 $44 +$33 (+328%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 80¢ 71¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 55¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 23¢ 44¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+89%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 46¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 143 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $4 +$5 +122%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$35 +226%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 +$35 +213%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +180%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$24 +786%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +178%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$29 +285%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$52 +413%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $12 +$24 +195%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 +$48 +97%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$5 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $14 +$9 +64%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $15 +$4 +29%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$35 +669%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 9? Jun 09 $44 −$28 -66%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 09 $14 +$3 +21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -96%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$6 -54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 1¢ $0 10h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 23¢ $5 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 12¢ $7 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 47h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $7 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 80¢ $14 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 86¢ $14 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.64 · official $93.64 (match) · 1371 history records