Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa79b…9ce4 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-8%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%34W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$10
sports 15% −$5
other 14% +$8
world 9% −$2
politics 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -27.7% -34.5% 48% 35% -29.1%
≤30d 60 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 47% -15.4%
≤90d 60 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 47% -15.4%
all 60 -6.7% -15.6% 57% 47% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 47% -15.4%
10% -23.7% 38% -23.5%
15% -31.1% 33% -30.9%
20% -37.8% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses34 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +18%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1 $0 +38%
Valorant: AGELITE vs REJECT (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage May 29 $3 +$1 +41%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records