Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa795…27c7 crypto 386 markets active 3d ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$206 (-3%) realized −$207 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate72%274W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$227
other 1% −$4
sports 0% −$29
tech 0% −$28
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -45.1% -50.3% 44% 33% -47.3%
≤30d 65 -7.1% -15.9% 74% 45% -19.2%
≤90d 65 -7.1% -15.9% 74% 45% -19.2%
all 383 -7.0% -15.8% 72% 44% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 44% -13.9%
10% -23.9% 25% -22.2%
15% -31.3% 14% -29.7%
20% -38.0% 4% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses274 / 109
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)383 / 386
History coverage135d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.31 · official $37.31 (match) · 1100 history records