Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A7 0xa795…a42b sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$589 (-13%) realized −$589 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$106
crypto 26% −$216
tech 12% −$521
other 6% +$4
politics 3% −$30
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 1 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 1 +4.1% -5.8% 100% 0% -5.8%
all 55 -1.4% -10.8% 42% 35% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 35% -22.9%
10% -19.4% 31% -30.3%
15% -27.1% 29% -37.0%
20% -34.3% 27% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$60 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage266d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 22? Oct 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 21 $21 −$3 -13%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 21 $542 −$521 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 27? Oct 21 $75 +$14 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 26? Oct 21 $198 +$52 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? Oct 20 $108 −$35 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 20? Oct 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Falcons vs. 49ers Oct 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 20 $369 −$5 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 24? Oct 20 $120 −$30 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 24? Oct 20 $137 −$45 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 19? Oct 19 $214 −$205 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 19? Oct 19 $123 −$99 -80%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $112 −$30 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 19? Oct 19 $53 +$73 +139%
Missouri vs. Auburn Oct 19 $36 +$27 +75%
USC vs. Notre Dame Oct 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Maryland Terrapins vs. UCLA Oct 19 $21 +$24 +114%
More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31? Oct 18 $100 $0 -0%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 18 $58 +$138 +238%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 18 $74 +$13 +18%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Oct 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31? Oct 17 $105 −$9 -9%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Oct 17 $117 +$81 +69%
Patriots vs. Saints Oct 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Seahawks vs. Jaguars Oct 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Cardinals vs. Colts Oct 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Georgia vs. Auburn Oct 12 $47 +$53 +113%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Pittsburgh vs. Florida State Oct 11 $96 +$4 +4%
Oklahoma vs. Texas Oct 11 $64 −$64 -100%
Iowa State vs. Colorado Oct 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Aces vs. Mercury Oct 11 $117 +$83 +71%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 11 $126 +$74 +59%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Oct 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Oct 09 $76 +$124 +163%
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Oct 09 $73 −$73 -100%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Oct 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Brewers vs. Cubs Oct 09 $16 −$1 -6%
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Oct 08 $25 +$75 +300%
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Oct 07 $28 +$64 +227%
Dodgers vs. Phillies Oct 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 06 $86 +$114 +133%
Patriots vs. Bills Oct 06 $114 −$114 -100%
Spread: Bills (-6.5) Oct 06 $116 −$116 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Oct 05 $28 +$13 +46%
Commanders vs. Chargers Oct 05 $56 +$4 +7%
Mercury vs. Aces Oct 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Broncos vs. Eagles Oct 05 $62 +$188 +304%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $42 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 6h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 7h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 22? BUY Yes $9 248d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 22? BUY Yes $4 248d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 22? BUY Yes $6 248d
Grokipedia released by October 31? SELL No 13¢ $18 248d
Grokipedia released by October 31? BUY No 15¢ $21 248d
OpenAI browser by October 31? SELL No $21 248d
OpenAI browser by October 31? BUY No 20¢ $19 248d
OpenAI browser by October 31? BUY No 22¢ $100 249d
OpenAI browser by October 31? BUY No 22¢ $220 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 27? SELL No 59¢ $88 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 26? SELL No 61¢ $250 249d
OpenAI browser by October 31? BUY No 21¢ $42 249d
OpenAI browser by October 31? BUY No 43¢ $86 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 27? BUY No 50¢ $75 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 26? BUY No 49¢ $49 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $98 249d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 249d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records