Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa793…1776 crypto 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 195d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 194d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,885 (-18%) realized −$7,885 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%450W / 374L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days−$206
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$7,901
other 6% +$643
sports 2% +$78
world 1% −$117
politics 1% +$3
weather 1% −$75
tech 1% −$46
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +6.6% -3.6% 56% 33% -6.6%
≤30d 120 -4.0% -13.2% 52% 38% -16.9%
≤90d 234 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 38% -17.3%
all 824 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 45% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 45% -25.0%
10% -17.6% 37% -32.2%
15% -25.5% 29% -38.8%
20% -32.8% 22% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$44 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,885
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses450 / 374
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)824 / 824
History coverage195d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 824 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$6 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$8 +28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $35 −$5 -15%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $46 −$11 -24%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$19 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$14 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$14 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$15 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $48 −$13 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $15 −$10 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $34 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $38 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $29 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $30 19m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $34 36m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 36m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $35 37m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $46 59m
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $46 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $28 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records