Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa78f…1dcf other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% $0
world 26% −$3
politics 19% $0
culture 9% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -3.8% -12.9% 10% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 10 -3.8% -12.9% 10% 0% -10.7%
all 35 -1.2% -10.6% 20% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage267d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -33%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 11 $36 −$1 -2%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 05 $6 $0 -4%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $15 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $7 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $6 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $28 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 13h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 108 history records