Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A7
0xa78e…7cbc
sports · 233 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$236 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$195 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75
Realized−$195
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses82 / 145
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions6
Markets (closed)227 / 233
History coverage166d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 227 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$515
14 days+$117
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Team WE 21¢ 43¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+105%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 56¢ 78¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 51¢ 40¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 12¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Team WE 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 14¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Winthrop University 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Barça eSports 45¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BIG 59¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner THUNDER dOWNUNDER 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 68¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Winthrop University 56¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 27¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming Junior 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner paiN Gaming 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Cloud9 52¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Team Yandex 63¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner G2 37¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner Natus Vincere 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 23¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 43¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$36 +348%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $23 +$45 +194%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $25 +$20 +78%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $15 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 +$71 +154%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 +$19 +76%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$38 +123%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$51 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$17 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$39 +128%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $30 −$5 -16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$46 +76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$23 +91%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $36 +$39 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$51 +166%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $25 +$43 +170%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $25 +$30 +118%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$13 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 +$28 +185%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$21 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$92
world 2% −$100
politics 0% −$25
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 21¢ $15 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $20 41m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 51¢ $20 43m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $46 51m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $20 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 22¢ $10 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 5¢ $5 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 9¢ $10 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 4¢ $10 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 33¢ $15 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 93¢ $34 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 22¢ $8 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 82¢ $35 3h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 35¢ $15 4h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le SELL FaZe Vegas 99¢ $45 12h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 55¢ $25 14h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League SELL G2 Minnesota 99¢ $17 14h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 86¢ $15 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 3¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 14¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 60¢ $61 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 5¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 13¢ $15 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $27 16h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 16¢ $15 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $117 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $15 17h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $31 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 9¢ $15 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $35 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -27.1% -34.0% 35% 35% -25.5%
≤30d 224 -2.2% -11.6% 36% 36% -18.5%
≤90d 227 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 36% -18.8%
all 227 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 36% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 36% -18.8%
10% -20.1% 35% -26.6%
15% -27.8% 35% -33.7%
20% -34.9% 33% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.51 · official $74.51 (match) · 397 history records