Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

A7 0xa78c…1d48 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-45.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-39.3%	-45.1%	50%	50%	-17.2%
≤30d	2	-39.3%	-45.1%	50%	50%	-17.2%
≤90d	2	-39.3%	-45.1%	50%	50%	-17.2%
all	2	-39.3%	-45.1%	50%	50%	-17.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.1%	50%	-17.2%
10%	-50.4%	0%	-25.2%
15%	-55.2%	0%	-32.4%
20%	-59.6%	0%	-39.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$71

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$20	$22	+$2 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 30	$15	+$3	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 30	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	SELL Up	61¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.94 · official $69.41 · 8 history records