Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa788…f47d sports 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$3
other 22% −$2
politics 21% −$2
economics 8% −$1
culture 7% −$1
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 170 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 165
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage167d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 08 $31 $0 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $79 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $155 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $138 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $274 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 20 $3 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $107 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 96¢ $31 12d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 97¢ $31 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 25d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 26d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $33 33d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $33 33d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $13 118d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $3 118d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $5 118d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $20 118d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $40 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $34 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $34 118d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 93¢ $39 118d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 93¢ $39 118d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $40 118d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $40 118d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 118d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 97¢ $36 118d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 97¢ $36 118d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $34 118d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $34 118d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $41 118d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 118d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 118d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 118d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $40 118d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $40 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.77 · official $31.77 (match) · 505 history records