Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A7 0xa787…2cfa sports 9 markets active 10h ago coverage 115d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,268 (+44%) realized +$2,268 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$567per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$828
7 days+$2,406
14 days+$2,406
30 days+$2,406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,341
other 22% +$866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +38.6% +25.4% 57% 57% +34.9%
≤30d 7 +38.6% +25.4% 57% 57% +34.9%
≤90d 7 +38.6% +25.4% 57% 57% +34.9%
all 9 +7.8% -2.5% 44% 44% +29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 44% +29.6%
10% -11.8% 44% +17.2%
15% -20.3% 44% +5.9%
20% -28.1% 44% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$944 vs −$314 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,268
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage115d
Avg bet$567
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,080 +$1,320 +122%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $818 −$319 -39%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $510 +$1,062 +208%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $550 −$550 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $935 +$1,065 +114%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $334 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $33 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $22 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $682 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $1 10h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $8 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $499 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $818 10h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $508 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $506 31h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $510 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $550 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $935 5d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 108d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records