Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A7 0xa785…8373 world 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$3
other 23% −$1
sports 10% +$9
politics 10% +$1
tech 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.1%
all 53 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 2% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -8.2%
10% -17.5% 2% -17.0%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.0%
20% -32.8% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage470d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $48 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $16 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $40 +$3 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Dec 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 21 $21 +$11 +51%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $26 +$1 +3%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 15 $0 $0 +2%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 13 $10 $0 -3%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $1,800 on May 9? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $20 $0 -1%
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $9 $0 -2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 26 $8 $0 -5%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the Jets draft a QB in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $41 20m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 20m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 2h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $7 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $9 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $9 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $16 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $47 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $47 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $15 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records